The Discerning Eye: Teams and their draft records

A controversial opinion I hold is that the Detroit Red Wings are not a very good team for either drafting or developing players. Usually I bring this up when someone states the direct opposite, usually mentioning Datsyuk and Zetterberg. The argument is usually that those two were picked in the later rounds and developed into veritable superstars. While that is definitely true, a good question is why Detroit picked them so late if Detroit's drafting staff was so sure about their talent.

Additionally, these two players were picked in 1998 and 1999 respectively. That's almost 15 years ago (and yes, we're all old). Who has Detroit really developed in the last 10 years or so?

I thought it could be a nice exercise to actually look at an objective measure to see what teams are good at drafting and picking talented players.

The data
For this I have taken the data off of Hockey DB and compiled it. The data includes all games through December 28th, 2013 played by players drafted in the 2000 NHL Entry draft and forward. I've chosen the 2000 Draft as a starting point as this was the first year that every current NHL team had a draft pick. The entire data I used is available as a Google Doc spreadsheet here.

	Division	Draftpicks	NHLPlayers	Games	Goals	Assists	Points	PIMS	NHLPlayer/Draftpick	Games/NHLPlayer	Games/Draftpick	Points/Game	Points/NHLPlayer	Points/Draftpick
League		3373	1199	205956	30916	50693	81609	133290	0.355469908093685	171.773144286906	61.0601838126297	0.3962448289926	68.0642201834862	24.1947820930922
League Average		112.433333333333	39.9666666666667	6865.2	1030.53333333333	1689.76666666667	2720.3	4443
Boston Bruins	Atlantic	101	44	6969	1066	1766	2832	4572	0.435643564356436	158.386363636364	69	0.406371071889798	64.3636363636364	28.039603960396
Buffalo Sabres	Atlantic	115	39	9126	1496	2444	3940	6060	0.339130434782609	234	79.3565217391304	0.431733508656586	101.025641025641	34.2608695652174
Detroit Red Wings	Atlantic	108	29	5744	844	1374	2218	2807	0.268518518518519	198.068965517241	53.1851851851852	0.386142061281337	76.4827586206896	20.537037037037
Florida Panthers	Atlantic	120	38	6475	879	1485	2364	4178	0.316666666666667	170.394736842105	53.9583333333333	0.365096525096525	62.2105263157895	19.7
Montreal Canadiens	Atlantic	107	40	8319	1182	1934	3116	5363	0.373831775700935	207.975	77.7476635514019	0.374564250510879	77.9	29.1214953271028
Ottawa Senators	Atlantic	113	42	8197	1069	1924	2993	4929	0.371681415929204	195.166666666667	72.5398230088496	0.365133585458094	71.2619047619048	26.4867256637168
Tampa Bay Lightning	Atlantic	121	36	3538	440	648	1088	2741	0.297520661157025	98.2777777777778	29.2396694214876	0.30751837196156	30.2222222222222	8.99173553719008
Toronto Maple Leafs	Atlantic	105	41	7149	1022	1751	2773	2944	0.39047619047619	174.365853658537	68.0857142857143	0.387886417680794	67.6341463414634	26.4095238095238
Chicago Blackhawks	Central	144	47	8150	1242	2315	3557	5379	0.326388888888889	173.404255319149	56.5972222222222	0.436441717791411	75.6808510638298	24.7013888888889
Colorado Avalanche	Central	114	44	7104	1111	1887	2998	3656	0.385964912280702	161.454545454545	62.3157894736842	0.422015765765766	68.1363636363636	26.2982456140351
Dallas Stars	Central	112	37	6685	927	1528	2455	4992	0.330357142857143	180.675675675676	59.6875	0.367240089753179	66.3513513513514	21.9196428571429
Minnesota Wild	Central	104	46	7781	1121	1850	2971	4957	0.442307692307692	169.152173913043	74.8173076923077	0.381827528595296	64.5869565217391	28.5673076923077
Nashville Predators	Central	123	45	7710	1059	1828	2887	5454	0.365853658536585	171.333333333333	62.6829268292683	0.374448767833982	64.1555555555556	23.4715447154472
St. Louis Blues	Central	115	43	5930	926	1534	2460	3767	0.373913043478261	137.906976744186	51.5652173913044	0.414839797639123	57.2093023255814	21.3913043478261
Winnipeg Jets	Central	119	36	6558	1281	1681	2962	4767	0.302521008403361	182.166666666667	55.109243697479	0.45166209210125	82.2777777777778	24.890756302521
Carolina Hurricanes	Metropolitan	95	30	4956	753	1125	1878	2595	0.31578947368421	165.2	52.1684210526316	0.378934624697337	62.6	19.7684210526316
Columbus Blue Jackets	Metropolitan	125	48	8316	1095	1625	2720	7049	0.384	173.25	66.528	0.327080327080327	56.6666666666667	21.76
New Jersey Devils	Metropolitan	109	41	5299	639	1087	1726	4083	0.376146788990826	129.243902439024	48.6146788990826	0.32572183430836	42.0975609756098	15.8348623853211
New York Islanders	Metropolitan	116	43	6227	843	1391	2234	3339	0.370689655172414	144.813953488372	53.6810344827586	0.358760237674643	51.953488372093	19.2586206896552
New York Rangers	Metropolitan	109	44	7426	909	1611	2520	4271	0.403669724770642	168.772727272727	68.1284403669725	0.339348235927821	57.2727272727273	23.1192660550459
Philadelphia Flyers	Metropolitan	105	39	7125	1319	2134	3453	5123	0.371428571428571	182.692307692308	67.8571428571429	0.484631578947368	88.5384615384615	32.8857142857143
Pittsburgh Penguins	Metropolitan	110	43	8130	1435	2478	3913	6594	0.390909090909091	189.06976744186	73.9090909090909	0.48130381303813	91	35.5727272727273
Washington Capitals	Metropolitan	115	37	7568	1274	2106	3380	4105	0.321739130434783	204.540540540541	65.8086956521739	0.44661733615222	91.3513513513514	29.3913043478261
Anaheim Ducks	Pacific	105	41	6907	1118	1752	2870	4590	0.39047619047619	168.463414634146	65.7809523809524	0.415520486463009	70	27.3333333333333
Calgary Flames	Pacific	111	37	6202	816	1315	2131	4992	0.333333333333333	167.621621621622	55.8738738738739	0.343598839084166	57.5945945945946	19.1981981981982
Edmonton Oilers	Pacific	126	47	7399	1074	1826	2900	5167	0.373015873015873	157.425531914894	58.7222222222222	0.391944857413164	61.7021276595745	23.015873015873
Los Angeles Kings	Pacific	122	44	8617	1386	2213	3599	4737	0.360655737704918	195.840909090909	70.6311475409836	0.417662759661135	81.7954545454546	29.5
Phoenix Coyotes	Pacific	107	31	4996	686	1127	1813	3275	0.289719626168224	161.161290322581	46.6915887850467	0.3628903122498	58.4838709677419	16.9439252336449
San Jose Sharks	Pacific	102	40	7244	1158	1884	3042	3839	0.392156862745098	181.1	71.0196078431372	0.419933738266151	76.05	29.8235294117647
Vancouver Canucks	Pacific	95	27	4109	746	1070	1816	2965	0.28421052631579	152.185185185185	43.2526315789474	0.441956680457532	67.2592592592592	19.1157894736842

A word of caution
At this moment I should make note of some limitations of this analysis. While compiling this list was easy enough, it only shows the teams that picked the players, but not how many games of their career each player actually played for those respective teams. Another limitation is that hockey is not just goals and assists, and contributions from defensemen and especially goaltenders are hard to gauge in this manner. Even the number of games played can be significantly reduced for goalies even if they are always healthy, since even fantastic goalies in career years will at most start around 70 games for their team. On the other hand, backup goalies do not show up enough despite their value in my opinion being regularly under-appreciated.

The results
The average number of Draft picks a team has received is between 112 and 113 draft picks. Chicago had by far the most with a whopping 144 picks, beating Edmonton's 126 by 18 picks. Chicago also manages to get a lot of players they draft into the NHL. 47 players is the second highest total of players who have played at least one NHL game, a number they share with Edmonton. Surprisingly Columbus beats this with 48 using 125 picks to do so (3rd highest).

On the other end of the spectrum we have Vancouver (27 players) and Carolina (30 players), which is hardly surprising considering they are the two teams with the fewest draft picks since 2000, 95 picks each. There already seems to be a correlation between the number of draft picks a team has and the number of NHL players that result from it (this correlation seems less strong though once the numbers are being divided by each other).

However, sandwiched in between them is a Detroit, a team one would hardly expect to find here. The Winged Wheelmen only managed to get 29 NHL players from their 108 draft picks (which is in the middle of the pack among all NHL teams). If one looks at the number of NHL players per draft pick (i.e. how likely is it that one of the players picked by a team actually gets into the NHL) the Wings place last at less than 27%. For comparison, the Bruins (43.5%) and Wild (44.2%) are on top.

What is good for the Red Wings is however that the players that make it to the NHL, stay in the NHL. They have the fourth highest average of games played by a player they drafted that made it to the NHL, with 198. This is almost a full 100 games more than the last ranked team, Tampa Bay Lightning, who are also the only team to get less than 100 games from each player they pick. The Buffalo Sabres are a surprising first place here, as players they picked stayed an average 234 games in the NHL.

Considering this number, it is less surprising that the Buffalo Sabres also get the most number of points per player that manages to get into the NHL, at 101. They are the only team above 100 even beating out the Capitals and Penguins (91 each) who can boast players like Ovechkin, Semin, Crosby or Malkin. Their rank falls a bit when looking at it on a per game basis, but is still good.

When adjusting the statistics to a per game basis (i.e. the number of points per game scored by players drafted by a team) the Flyers make a somewhat surprising appearance on top, narrowly beating out the Penguins. The Capitals are fourth, but above them to my astonishment rank the Winnipeg Jets née Atlanta Thrashers, but then one might remember that Ilya Kovalchuk and Danny Heatley were drafted by that organization. Detroit ranks in the middle of the pack here.

The team that seems to be doing worst at here is the Tampa Bay Lightning, who rank near the bottom of the NHL players per draft pick and are dead last in points per game played by their draft picks and games those draft picks even get to play in the NHL on average.

The Buffalo Sabres on the other hand have a very strong showing in this analysis. This also seems mostly through longevity of their drafted players.

Interpretation
While the Detroit Red Wings do not suck outright in developing NHL talent, it is still very surprising that so few players they have picked since 2000 actually managed to get into the NHL. The picks they have made and resulted in a points percentage ranking only around the middle of the NHL. The Red Wings management also has an approach to trading that can only be described as "ultra-conservative". Additionally it seems that they a hard time getting big ticket free agents sign there (e.g. Suter) and are reduced to picking up veterans on their last legs like Modano or Alfredsson. Zetterberg and Datsyuk aren't getting younger either.

Even Steve Yzerman doesn't seem to be doing too hot either in Tampa. Though the 10 years also taken into consideration in this analysis prior to his involvement are definitely a large part of the Lightning's miserable showing in this set of data, one should note that only 4 players of the 28 drafted by Yzerman have managed to make it to the NHL so far, and they have combined for 55 points in 159 games. Considering that Yzerman was groomed to be Detroit's next GM, this seems worrisome.
Taking all these factors into consideration one may very well wonder how long the Red Wings can keep up with the rest of the league.